How many goals are scored in a football match?
Today, in the spirit of summer and the World Cup, I thought I'd write about something that has nothing to do with ecology and sustainable development, my usual topics. I've been catching the occassional football match, and got into a debate with a friend about whether or not World Cup games were lower scoring than they were in previous years. I'm sure someone else has looked at this, but I thought it'd be fun to check out the facts myself.
So, there's a big difference between the first several decades of the World Cup and the modern World Cup. The average number of total goals scored (by either team) has declined:
1930 4.0
1934 4.1
1938 4.7
1950 4.0
1954 5.4
1958 3.6
1962 2.8
1966 2.8
1970 3.0
1974 2.6
1978 2.7
1982 2.9
1986 2.5
1990 2.2
1994 2.7
1998 2.7
2002 2.6
The same trend is evident if one looks at the average difference in scores between teams, which was higher before 1954 and lower afterward (anyone know why this is?):
1930 2.6
1934 1.5
1938 2.1
1950 2.3
1954 3.0
1958 1.5
1962 1.5
1966 1.5
1970 1.5
1974 1.7
1978 1.5
1982 1.4
1986 1.4
1990 1.2
1994 1.2
1998 1.3
2002 1.4
While the average number of total goals scored doesn't change much since 1958, there does seem to be a trend in the distribution over time. Interestingly, the number of null-null matches has decreased over time, as has the number of mathces with 5 or more total goals scored.
A similar change in distribution occurs for the average difference in match scores. The number of tie games increases over time, as do the number of matches decided by one match. In contrast, the number of matches decided by 2 or more goals sharply declines over time.
